- Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasizes the possibility of a “rug pull of a decade” as the SEC’s decision on a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) looms.
- Despite a 90% chance of approval by January 10, concerns persist that the SEC may seek “more time” rather than issuing an outright rejection.
- Balchunas and fellow analyst James Seyffart highlight the extensive effort invested by the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers, making an outright denial less likely.
Slim Chances but Lingering Concerns:
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas acknowledges the slim chances but raises concerns about a potential delay rather than an outright rejection of the spot Bitcoin ETF. While the approval odds stand at 90%, the analysts are cautious due to the SEC’s inclination to seek additional time.
Time as the Deciding Factor:
Balchunas suggests that a failure to witness approval in the next two weeks would likely be attributed to the SEC’s need for more time. The analysts stress that the 10% chance of non-approval includes scenarios where the SEC opts for an extension rather than a flat-out denial.
Unlikely Rug Pull Scenario:
Expressing doubt about a full-out denial, Balchunas highlights the significant time and effort invested by both the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers. The collaborative effort over the holidays makes an outright rejection at the last moment improbable.
“This would be the rug pull of the decade.” “Everybody put in a lot of work in this, especially over the holidays. Sadistic might not even be strong enough a word for it.”
Potential Repercussions of Denial:
Balchunas speculates that if the SEC issues an outright denial, fund issuers may pursue legal action against the regulator. Comparing it to Grayscale’s response, he anticipates immediate pushback, emphasizing the commitment and resources invested in the approval process.
Conclusion: As the SEC’s decision on the Bitcoin ETF hangs in the balance, the crypto community watches closely. While optimism prevails with a 90% approval chance, the cautionary note from analysts underscores the importance of time in this critical regulatory juncture. The looming decision could shape the trajectory of the crypto market and influence the strategies of fund issuers.
Julia